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Fact; The world�s
resources are finite.
Fact; Supply is
constrained and demand keeps growing along with the world�s population.
Fact; A sustainable and
secure supply of raw materials and energy is becoming the number one priority
for all countries.
Major powers are
scrambling for as much of the world�s resources as they can control.
Exploration and drilling intensify daily. Previously inaccessible or
unprofitable areas are targeted - the days of easy access to the globe�s
resources no longer exist.
Unseen wars in previously
unheard of places - soon to become front page news - are beginning for
resource control. Peace today, harmonious relations tomorrow are nothing but
fleeting illusions.
Hydrocarbons, mineral
resources, fresh water and arable land are finite.
Understand someday peak
oil and gas proponents will be proven right.
Understand arable,
productive farmland is disappearing from overuse, desertification and
urbanization.
Understand the world�s
current population of 7 billion people use 60 percent of our annual renewable
freshwater supply.
The world's population is
projected to hit 10 billion by 2050 - global demand for food and water is
expected to increase by 50% and 30% respectively by 2030.
�It should be pointed
out that when we speak of wars in the last third of the twentieth century we
are talking about civil wars. Between 1965 and 1999 if we look at those wars
in which more than a thousand people were killed a year, there were
seventy-three civil wars, almost all driven by greed to control
resources�oil, diamonds, copper, cacao, coca, and even bananas.� William K. Tabb, Resource Wars
Try and imagine the
coming pressure on governments in regards to sourcing resources on a national
scale. The
world's most powerful nations are staking claims, through aggressive
diplomacy, wherever vital reserves of resources can be found. It isn�t
enough.
Nations are going to go
to war over natural resources. Conflicts are inevitable.
South & East
China Sea
China has been involved
in territorial disputes with Japan and Taiwan over the
Senkaku islands, and Vietnam over the Spratly islands.
China has also ramped up
its naval presence in the South China Sea. Why? China�s energy starved and
the areas off the coast of the Philippine province of Palawan are oil rich.
In mid-2012, the Philippines and China came dangerously close to an armed
conflict over the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.
China's increasingly
contentious showdown with Japan in the East China Sea could prove to be even
more dangerous. At issue are disputed Islands (Senkakus to the Japanese,
Diaoyu to China) and the fishing rights and natural resources those islands
would deliver to their owner.
The standoff has already
resulted in several direct confrontations between China and Japan.
The U.S. has treaty
obligations to Japan. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel recently warned China
that any attack on the disputed islands would "fall under our
security obligations."
India-China
Border
Chinese dam-building on
the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra River has raised fears in India that
Beijing might one day turn off critical water supplies.
India's state oil
company, Oil and Natural Gas Corp., accepted an invitation from Vietnam to
explore for oil and gas in the disputed South China Sea escalating an already
intense drama.
Both India and China are
pushing to gain a foothold in the Arctic. Melting ice is opening passages for
shipping and creating the conditions for a boom in the extraction of fossil
fuels and minerals.
Both countries are
building up their navies to project influence, and China�s presence in the
Indian Ocean is expected to grow.
"India will be
concerned by a growing Chinese naval presence in the western Indian Ocean,
which it has always considered its preserve. It has tolerated a significant
U.S. presence there, but it has never considered the U.S. an enemy." David Shinn, a former U.S.
ambassador in Africa
Arctic
The Arctic Council is
made up of the eight Arctic nations: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland,
Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States. These countries work through
the Arctic Council to lay ground rules for governing the Arctic - the Council
acts as a key vehicle for hashing out the not inconsiderable strategic
stakes.
�With the Arctic ice
melting, the region�s abundant supplies of oil, gas and minerals have become
newly accessible, as have shortened shipping routes and open water for
commercial fishing, setting off a global competition for influence and
economic opportunities far beyond the nations that border the Arctic.� Yale.edu
China has recently won
observer status on the council as has India, Italy, Japan, Singapore and
South Korea.
Water War
Data scientists recently
downloaded from a pair of NASA gravity-sensing Grace satellites show ground
water is increasingly in short supply.
The biggest losses show
up as red hotspots. Almost all of those red hotspots center on the major
aquifers of the world. Grace shows us that groundwater depletion is happening
at a very rapid rate in the arid and semi-arid parts of the world.
And the losses are
staggering.
Parts of Turkey, Syria,
Iraq and Iran along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers have lost 144 cubic
kilometers of stored water. The majority of the water loss, about 60 percent,
is due to reductions in groundwater.
There�s 600 million
people living in the extremely dry 2,000 km stretch of land that extends from
eastern Pakistan across northern India and into Bangladesh.
NASA�s Grace satellite
measurements show a loss of 54km3 of groundwater a year.
At 54km3 of water loss
per year, Lake Ontario (water volume of 1,639km�) would be dry in 30 years. A
cubic kilometer of water equals about 264 billion gallons.
A 2005 Organization for
Economic Co-Operation and Development Issues Brief suggested that conflicts
and violence over access to water would likely increase because, �competition
for water exists at all levels and is forecast to increase with demands for
water in almost all countries. In 2030, 47% of world population will be
living in areas of high water stress.�
In a 2012 report, the US director of national
intelligence warned that overuse of water � as in India and other countries �
was a source of conflict that could potentially compromise US national
security. �Our Bottom Line: During the next 10 years, many countries
important to the United States will experience water problems�shortages, poor
water quality, or floods�that will risk instability and state failure,
increase regional tensions, and distract them from working with the United
States on important US policy objectives. Between now and 2040, fresh water
availability will not keep up with demand absent more effective management of
water resources. Water problems will hinder the ability of key countries to
produce food and generate energy, posing a risk to global food markets and
hobbling economic growth. As a result of demographic and economic development
pressures, North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia will face major
challenges coping with water problems.�
The Pacific Institute, which studies issues
of water and global security, found a fourfold increase in violent confrontations over water over
the last decade. �There is a long history of conflicts over water
resources, extending back thousands of years into myths, legends, and ancient
history. But even now, in the modern world, disputes over access to water,
the use of water as a weapon, and the targeting of water systems during
conflicts remain all too common. It has been argued that water resources have
rarely, if ever, been the sole source of violent conflict or war. But this
fact has led some international security �experts� to ignore the complex and
real relationships between water and security, which remain a major challenge.
Indeed, our work suggests that the risks of water-related
violence and conflict is growing, not diminishing, as population, resources,
and economic and environmental pressures on scarce water resources increase.
Many of these risks are materializing at the sub-national level rather than
as disputes among nations, but even at the national level, there are growing
concerns about tensions in Africa and parts of Asia that share international
rivers but lack international agreements over how to manage those waters.�
Nations are going to increasingly compete for the world�s diminishing
resources.
China is a surging military power, Russia is a resource powerhouse but
politically corrupt and economically crippled. Japan is rebuilding its
military. The U.S. is treaty bound to protect Japan and South Korea and will
protect the Philippines in the face of Chinese aggression. Proxy conflicts in
Africa, and elsewhere, between and among, U.S., Chinese, Indian and European
backed forces will intensify in the future.
The Arctic will be an area of growing resource interest and rising
conflicts.
A year ago, leading German industrial companies (to name four - BASF and
Bayer who emerged from now infamous IG Farben, ThyssenKrupp, formerly two
separate companies. Thyssen and Krupp both supported Hitler, the Volkswagen
Group was founded on Hitler�s initiative) launched the Resource Alliance
(Rohstoffallianz) for the purpose of securing the supply of selected raw
materials for its shareholders and corporate members.
Germany�s Resource Alliance is advocating the use of military force to
secure raw materials to keep Germany�s industrial machine chugging along.
Imperialism is the process whereby the dominant politico-economic
interests of the time expropriate, for their own enrichment, the land, labor,
natural resources and markets of others.
World War II gives us an excellent example of imperialism. The Nazi state
gave German business cartels the opportunity to plunder the resources of
occupied Europe.
Conclusion
Will future historians write that Iraq (oil), Libya (more than oil, Libya
has one of the largest fresh water systems in the world contained in four
major underground basins), Afghanistan and Syria, both literal gold mines of
mineral wealth were the first battlegrounds in a continual war over
resources?
Increasingly it�s going to be a resource centric world. Major powers will
confront resource rich areas, in the left hand will be aggressive diplomacy �
WE will build you bridges, schools, hospitals, transportation and power infrastructure
in return for long term off take agreements for your resources. The right
hand is understood to be a military club. Proxy conflicts, rebels, insurgents
and civil war if you don�t agree or deal with someone else.
It isn�t if, it�s when do confrontations already underway, and the coming
future conflicts spin out of control?
China�s after oil in the South China Sea and again it�s China but versus
Japan in the East China Sea, both of whom are starved for energy.
India�s short of water, China controls the flow.
Russia annexes the Crimea, Putin�s eventual goal - the vast natural
resources of the Ukraine. In 2008 Putin stopped NATO from signing up Georgia
and Ukraine into its membership action plan. He then moved against Georgia.
In 2013 he interrupted Ukraine�s signing of an association agreement with the
EU. Now he�s annexed the Crimea and is on record stating that Ukraine is not
a country but a territory and insists it should be divided. If Putin is
successful in his bid for Ukraine what�s next? The Baltic states come to
mind.
The German industrial complex, the Rohstoffallianz, is openly advocating
imperialism.
An escalation in tension, and an increase in resource driven conflicts is
certainly on my radar screen. Is the truth behind what�s increasingly going
to drive future armed conflicts on your radar screen?
If not, it should be.
Richard lives with his family on a 160 acre ranch in northern British
Columbia. He invests in the resource and biotechnology/pharmaceutical sectors
and is the owner of Aheadoftheherd.com. His articles have been published on
over 400 websites, including:
WallStreetJournal, USAToday, NationalPost, Lewrockwell,
MontrealGazette, VancouverSun, CBSnews, HuffingtonPost, Beforeitsnews,
Londonthenews, Wealthwire, CalgaryHerald, Forbes, Dallasnews, SGTreport,
Vantagewire, Indiatimes, Ninemsn, Ibtimes, Businessweek, HongKongHerald,
Moneytalks, SeekingAlpha, BusinessInsider, Investing.com and the Association
of Mining Analysts.
Please visit www.aheadoftheherd.com
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***
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Richard Mills has based this
document on information obtained from sources he believes to be reliable but
which has not been independently verified.
Richard Mills makes no guarantee,
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Mills only and are subject to change without notice. Richard Mills assumes no
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held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement
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Furthermore, I, Richard Mills,
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