Contents:
- Gold Second Best Currency In 2014 – Higher In All Currencies Except Dollar
- Silver Falls Despite Robust Demand
- Stock and Bond Performance In 2014
- Oil Prices Collapse; Energy, Copper, Sugar Fall; Coffee Surges
- Regulatory Authorities Confirm Gold Rigging
- Another Year Of Paper Selling While Physical Demand Robust – Especially From China and India
- Continuing Central Bank and Russian Central Bank Demand
- Gold Repatriation Movements Gather Momentum
- Ebola – Threat Moves From Africa To West
- Markets Sleep as U.S. Government Debt Surges Over $18 Trillion
- Move To Stealth Bail-In Regime Continues
REVIEW of 2014
Happy New Year !
We would like to take this opportunity to wish all our clients and our growing community of subscribers a peaceful, prosperous and healthy 2015.
At the end of each year, it is important to take stock and review how various assets have performed and what has transpired in the year gone past, as it will give indications as to how assets will perform in the coming year and, more importantly, years.
Gold Second Best Currency In 2014 – Higher In All Currencies Except Dollar
Gold was the second best performing currency in 2014, with only the U.S. dollar stronger.
The Gold fix on December 31st 2014 was USD 1,199.25, EUR 986.55 and GBP 769.84 per ounce.
The Gold fix on December 31st 2013 was USD 1,201.50, EUR 872.55 and GBP 726.99 per ounce.
Gold was marginally lower in dollars in 2014 but rose in all other major currencies. Gold in euro and pound rose 13 percent and 6 percent respectively. Gold in yen rose 15 percent in 2014.
Gold for February delivery fell $16.30, or 1.4%, to settle at $1,184.10 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Wednesday (Dec 31st), to end the year 1.3% lower for the year. A year ago, gold’s most-active contract settled at $1,202.30 an ounce.
Gold in USD – 1 Year (Thomson Reuters)
Gold ended the year 14% off its 2014 high of $1,379 an ounce set in mid March after the price surge at the start of the the year in January, February and March.
China’s yuan closed at 6.2040 against the dollar on Wednesday, ending 2014 with a loss of 2.4 percent against the dollar and 1% against gold. The yuan fell as China has engaged in its own QE and competitive currency devaluation – currency wars continued quietly in 2014.
Gold in Euros – 1 Year (Thomson Reuters)
Gold again protected investors in the Eurozone with the 13 percent gain. Gold rose nearly exactly €100 from EUR 876 per ounce to close at EUR 980 per ounce. Gold again acted as a classic safe haven for investors exposed to the euro, and markets and assets denominated in euros.
The gains in euro terms and move back towards EUR 1,000 per ounce may also signal concerns about some form of ECB QE or money printing and debt monetisation in the coming months.
Gold in British Pounds – 1 Year (Thomson Reuters)
Gold in sterling saw similar gains to those in euro but sterling was a stronger currency in 2014 and therefore gains were not as much. There was a similar chart trajectory with gains in the early part of the year followed by a retracement and consolidation and then a sell off towards the end of October, followed by a slight bounce higher.
The price falls in October and into year end in dollar terms took place despite a positive fundamental backdrop and despite the risk of contagion in the Eurozone, concerns about global economic growth, the emergence of Ebola and the twin geopolitical risks emanating from tensions and war in the Middle East and tensions with Russia leading to the economic slowdown in Russia and collapse of the rouble.
The falls on Wednesday, the last day of the year, may have been due to the usual suspects on Wall Street pushing prices lower in order to again “paint the tape” and engender further negative sentiment in the western gold market.
Indeed, trading in December had all the hallmarks of an entity or entities attempting to keep the gold price below $1,200/oz. It is worth noting that the price low last year was on December 31st.
Given that 2014 was the year that manipulation and rigging of the gold market was proven after years of allegations, it would be naive to discount the possibility of further manipulation, especially given the fact that banks found guilty of rigging markets received risible punishment – mere slaps on the wrist. These will be unlikely to prevent further price rigging.
Despite the slight loss for gold in dollar terms and very negative sentiment, globally gold had a very good year.
Many currencies were severely devalued in 2014 as currency wars continue unabated.
Gold acted as a safe haven to many people in countries around the world. Gold rose strongly in many currencies such as the Syrian pound, Ukrainian hryvnia and of course the Russian rouble.
Geopolitical risk intensified with the risk of terrorism and war ever present and gold continued to act as an important hedge against geopolitical risk and indeed currency devaluations.
- Silver Falls Despite Robust Demand
Silver was down a further 19 percent in 2014 after the sharp 36% fall in dollar terms in 2013.
Silver remains down a whopping nearly 70% from its record nominal high in 2011.
Silver in USD – 1 Year (Thomson Reuters)
Investors are continuing to accumulate silver as it looks great value at the levels – both compared to gold and also when compared to increasingly toppy stock and bond markets.
Silver in USD – 5 Years (Thomson Reuters)
Platinum had a 12 percent decline this year. The metal is heading for the first back-to-back yearly losses since 1997.
Palladium bucked the trend and rose 12 percent this year, the third annual gain due to concerns about supplies from Russia and South Africa – the two largest producers.
- Stock and Bond Performance In 2014
2014 was again the year of the risk asset, such as equities and bonds, with both doing well in the deep and increasingly murky sea of liquidity and cheap money created by central banks.
Risk assets favoured by banks and central banks did well, while other risk assets such as many commodities did not fare as well.
MSCI World Index – 1 Year (Thomson Reuters)
Very favourable monetary conditions did not lead to higher commodity and precious metal prices. Quite the contrary, commodities in general had a torrid year and significantly underperformed the vast majority of equity and bond markets.
The MSCI World Index rose 2.93% in the year compared with 24.1% in 2013 while MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ended the year almost exactly where it started. However, with the help of Bank of Japan money printing, the Nikkei 225 gained 7.1%.
The Dow rose 7.5% in 2014, its sixth-consecutive yearly gain. The S&P 500 added 11.4%, its third-straight annual gain. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 13.4% in 2014, also marking its third-straight annual gain.
The Dow’s 30 industrials closed at a record 38 times in 2014, while the S&P 500 did so 53 times (see chart below).
European share indices were mixed in a volatile and tumultuous year. There was a late rebound as the promise of EU QE contributed to modest gains.
The FTSEurofirst 300 index of pan-European shares, had a 3.9 percent gain for the year.
The French CAC has lost 0.5 percent and the German DAX eked out slim gains of 2.7 percent.
FTSE 100 Index – 1 Year (Thomson Reuters)
Britain’s FTSE 100 index, was the only major European index to eye a yearly loss, due to its high exposure to the energy and commodities sectors. It was down 2.7 percent for the year.
The Spanish IBEX 35 climbed 3.7% and the Italian FTSE MIB was little changed. Ireland’s ISEQ Index was volatile but rose by 14.5%.
Stocks in Portugal and Greece crashed. The PSI 20 lost a whopping 26.8 percent and Greek shares had a yearly loss of nearly 30 percent. Greece is heading for an early general election on January 25, which radical leftist party Syriza is tipped to win – potentially leading to a new eurozone debt crisis.
With a 21% surge, Denmark’s OMX Copenhagen 20 Index posted the biggest rise among 24 developed markets tracked by Bloomberg.
The stand out global equity performers were China and Argentina.
In China, the CSI300 index saw gains of nearly 50 percent after two months of very strong gains in November and December when hopes grew of more policy stimulus and international capital won wider access to Chinese stocks.
Despite battling a debt default and currency crisis, Argentina’s stock market won the unlikely accolade of the best performing global index of 2014.
The Buenos Aires Merval Index has logged an annual gain of an incredible 58.9%. This is the greatest percentage increase compared to other global benchmarks tracked by Reuters.
This is what frequently happens to stock markets in countries on the verge of or experiencing hyperinflation as was seen in Zimbabwe in 2009.
S&P 500 Index – 20 Years (Thomson Reuters)
Emerging market stocks and bonds were generally lower and many had a second straight year in the red, especially Russia.
Europe’s government bond markets were buoyed as global flood of cheap money helped take Italian and Spanish borrowing costs to record lows and gave safer German debt its strongest year in six.
U.S. Treasuries had their best year since 2011, and returned 4.95 percent in 2014 while long bonds had a 27.23 percent return.
Benchmark 10-year note yields have dropped to 2.18 percent from 3 percent at the beginning of the year. Thirty-year bond yields have fallen to 2.76 percent, from 3.93 percent.
- Oil Prices Collapse; Energy, Copper, Sugar Fall; Coffee Surges
The year 2014 was bad for commodities in general as prices of most commodities fell.
Commodities had the biggest annual loss since the global financial crisis in 2008, retreating for a record fourth year due to concerns about global economic growth.
The CRB Commodity Index fell to its lowest level in over five years. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks 22 products from crude to copper, dropped to the lowest level since March 2009 on New Years Eve. It was down 16 percent this year, with crude, gasoline and heating oil the biggest decliners.
The fourth year of losses is the longest since at least 1991. Prices of many metals as well as major agri commodities such as soybean, soy oil and crude palm oil fell.
Copper was set to post its worst annual decline in three years on worries about global growth and growth in top consumer China.
The price of Brent crude oil halved in 2014 and had its biggest annual decline since 2008, pressured by weakening demand and a supply glut prompted by the U.S. shale boom and OPEC’s refusal to cut output.
Sugar futures fell for a fourth straight year, the longest losing streak for sugar since at least 1971, as far back as CQG data go. March sugar ended the year at 14.52 cents a pound, down nearly 12% for the year.
Global production of sugar will likely outpace demand for the fifth consecutive year in the season ending Sept. 30, 2015, according to the International Sugar Organization. Oversupply and declining demand due to increased health awareness has hit prices.
Cotton futures also ended lower because of ballooning global supplies. Cotton was down 29% for the year.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects the world’s cotton supply to surpass demand by a record 108.08 million bales when the current season ends July 31.
It wasn’t all bad, though, as a few commodities, such as live cattle and palladium, rose. Coffee was the best-performing commodity, after a brutal bear market lasting from 2011 through 2013. Coffee surged 48% in 2014.
Orange-juice concentrate for March ended the year up 2.6%, at $1.3980 a pound. Cocoa saw its third consecutive year of gains, ending the year up 7.4% as strong demand buoyed prices.
- Regulatory Authorities Confirm Gold and Silver Rigging
2014 may go down as the year when gold and silver conspiracy “theories” became conspiracy “facts” as banks globally were found to have conspired to rig the prices of gold, silver, currency and many other markets.
UK regulators found that Barclays had manipulated gold prices . The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority fined the British bank £26 million in May.
Further proof of manipulation of gold and silver prices also came in November when Switzerland’s financial regulator (FINMA) found “serious misconduct” and a “clear attempt to manipulate precious metals benchmarks” by UBS employees in precious metals trading, particularly with silver.
UBS settled allegations of misconduct at its gold and silver trading business in November, alongside a planned agreement between UK and US authorities and seven banks over accusations of foreign exchange market rigging.
Last week came news that Britain will widen the scope of laws which make the manipulation of market benchmarks a criminal offence. The changes will now include seven more rates covering the currency, gold, oil and silver markets, the government said last week.
Peculiar, single trade or handful of trades leading to sudden gold and silver price falls continued in 2014 and contributed to gold and silver’s weakness. Price falls were often seen at times when markets were less liquid. As ever, price falls were driven from the futures market in electronic and increasingly computer driven trading – despite no reports of any major liquidations of physical metal.
Indeed, they often came at times of strong global physical demand.
Banks continue to get mere slaps on the wrists for breaking the law. Very few traders or bankers have faced prosecution or jail time. Instead, regulators levy ineffectual fines that are tiny when compared to their annual bonuses and indeed profits.
As long as this continues, we will continue to see criminal behaviour and banks attempting to manipulate and rig markets at the expense of investors and other financial market participants.
Such behaviour is creating huge distortions in markets and will likely contribute to another financial crash and crisis.
However, it also creates opportunities as certain markets not favoured by banks and central banks are artificially held lower, thus allowing canny investors to pick up assets on the cheap.
Gold is some 37% below the nominal high in 2011 and silver some 70% below its nominal high in 2011.
- Another Year Of Paper Selling While Physical Demand Robust – Especially From China and India
Demand from China and India is set to be some 3,000 metric tonnes this year – more than the entire annual global production of gold.
India is set for demand of some 1,000 tonnes and China over 2,000 metric tonnes as measured by the benchmark Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) withdrawals – which is likely the single most important benchmark of global gold demand today.
Last year saw another robust year for Chinese demand despite frequent talk of weak demand and low premiums in China.
Manipulation of markets can work effectively in the short term. However, in the long term prices will be dictated by the global supply and the global demand of 7 billion people, many in Asia who believe in gold as a store of value.
Not to mention, sovereign central banks such as the People’s Bank of China and the Russian central bank – who believe in gold as an important monetary asset.
- Continuing Central Bank and Russian Central Bank Demand
In 2014, central banks continued to accumulate gold with Russia in particular and ex Soviet States – Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyz Republic and other central banks continuing to diversify their foreign exchange reserves – frequently reducing dollar holdings and increasing gold holdings.
U.S. Federal Reserve employees auditing gold?
Central banks continued to be strong buyers of gold in 2014, albeit the full year data may show demand was at a slightly slower rate than the record levels seen in recent years.
Central banks have been accelerating gold purchases ever since quantitative easing began in early 2009. Central banks added 93 tons of gold to reserves in the third quarter of 2014, with more than half of all buying coming from Russia, according to the World Gold Council.
Q4 2014 will likely be the 16th consecutive quarter of net purchases of gold by central banks.
Central bank purchases are expected to hit more than 400 tons for the full year, in line with 2013.
However, the official figures do not include the ongoing clandestine and undeclared purchases of gold by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). Conservative estimates put PBOC demand at 100 tonnes a quarter or at over 400 tonnes for the year. More radical projections are of demand of over 1,000 tonnes from the PBOC again in 2014.
China is buying huge amounts of gold as it seeks to increase its gold allocation from the current low of just 1 percent of foreign exchange reserves.
As currency wars deepen and as economic war with Russia intensifies, there is now a possibility that Russia may like China, also start accumulating gold in a clandestine manner. Rather than selling gold as some banks have suggested without any facts or reasoning to back it up, Russia may increase its gold buying in an effort to protect the rouble.
- Gold Repatriation Movements Gather Momentum
The gold repatriation movement began by Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and given added impetus by the Bundesbank in 2013, continued to gather momentum in 2014.
People in other European countries began to demand that central banks repatriate their gold reserves – frequently from the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve.
The Bundesbank is bringing back many tons of their valuable gold bars from abroad in order to store them in the vaults of the central bank in Frankfurt. By 2020 at the latest, half of Germany’s gold reserves are to be stored in Frankfurt.
At the end of last year the volume was not even one-third as the Germans struggled to have their gold returned to them – for reasons known only by the Federal Reserve and possibly the Bundesbank.
In 2014 came news that Netherlands, Belgium and Austria are seeking to repatriate their gold reserves.
Austria is the latest country to start discussing bringing its gold home. It has 280 tons of gold, 80% of which is stored in London, with another 3% held in Switzerland. In December it was reported that an Austrian audit court had ordered a review of the practicality of bringing Austrian gold reserves back to Vienna, where the central bank would have total control of it.
Last month, the leader of the populist National Front in France, Marine Le Pen, wrote an open letter to the Bank of France demanding that all the French gold be returned to Paris. For good measure, she urged the bank to take advantage of the fall in the gold price to increase French allocations to gold.
France is is one of the largest gold reserve holders in the world, with 2,435 tons.
Germany, France, Netherlands, Austria and Belgium are five of the countries at the core of the European Union and the political and financial power lies in these the“Northern block” of countries.
This could lead to a run on the global fractional reserve gold reserve system. An already tight and very small physical market may be confronted with new and very significant sources of demand for gold that has likely been sold into or leased into the market in recent years.
This along with demand from China and India and central bank demand from China, Russia and ex Soviet States has the potential be a catalyst for gold shortages and much higher prices in the coming years.
- Ebola – Threat Moves From Africa To West
Ebola was one of the biggest developments in 2014. Initially, the outbreak was confined almost completely to West African countries
Ebola struck fear into people’s hearts because of its virus potential. This is a highly contagious disease, spread through a number of vectors, with an average mortality rate of 50 percent – in some cases, it’s been as high as 90 percent. Very few antivirals can cure it. New research has shown that the virus can live on in the semen of infected, though cured, men, for months.
Ebola has the potential to turn into a global pandemic. This is especially the case in an era of mass-movement around the planet.
The crisis continues. As of early December, there were roughly 18,000 suspected cases and almost 7,000 deaths. The World Health Organisation (WHO) reckons this is under-estimated.
There were cases in Spain and the U.S, brought there by returning health workers. In Ireland, a man suspected of being infected with Ebola was given the all-clear. Ebola is being held in check – for now – but the WHO and various NGOs have urged the global community to step up their efforts.
At the time of writing came news that a British health care worker who has contracted the disease is quarantined and being treated in a hospital in London. There are concerns about all she came in contact with – including family, friends, colleagues, people on the return flight back with her and even taxi drivers.
A doctor who sat next to the nurse on the plane returning from Africa has accused health officials of jeopardising public safety by allowing at-risk volunteers to use public transport and enter crowded places once they arrive back in the UK.
Pandemics can severely affect supply chains, including food supplies, business operations and key government services such as the provision of water, electricity, education and of course health care. Travel restrictions and “stay at home” policies bordering on curfew would greatly curtail economic activity.
There is also an element of the “boy who cried wolf” regarding the ebola virus. There have been numerous alarmist campaigns and scaremongering regarding many viruses – bird flu, swine flu, H1N1 etc There have been many false alarms that when an actual pandemic commences, people may ignore the threat for longer than is prudent.
Therefore, the public will remain skeptical of the risk of ebola virus until it has been shown to be a real threat. This in itself poses risks as it means that people do not act in a precautionary manner thereby exposing themselves to potentially contracting the virus.
Is Ebola another virus scare or a real pandemic?
It is too soon to tell. Unless it is contained in the U.S. and Europe, it will likely at the very least impact consumer confidence and already fragile economic growth. Worse scenarios are possible with attendant consequences for risk assets.
- Markets Sleep as U.S. Government Debt Surges Over $18 Trillion
An important story in 2014 and yet one that was largely ignored by media, the markets and even the blogosphere was the continuing deterioration in the U.S. fiscal situation.
The continuing steady and rapid growth in the U.S. national debt led to the total U.S. national or government debt hitting a new record high on December 1st at over $18 trillion.
The total U.S. debt has increased by 70% under Obama, from $10.62 trillion in January 2009 to over $18.005 trillion today. Actually since early December the debt has increased another whopping $50.19 billion to $18,050,191,719,150.07.
The Obama administration continues to pile debt onto the back of the U.S. taxpayer at a rate that would have made George W. Bush look quite prudent.
With the U.S. national debt or government debt now at over a staggering $18 trillion, it means that each household in the U.S. now carries the burden of $124,000 in national debt alone – or $56,378 per individual.
This does not include the massive private debt or household debt burden – people’s mortgages, personal loans, credit card debt, student loans, car loans and other household debt.
In short, the federal government has borrowed, and spent, nearly $7.5 trillion more since President Obama took office than it has collected in taxes.
As ever, historical context is all important. The U.S National Debt took 43 Presidents from 1789 until 2008 to reach $10 trillion. The National Debt rose $4.899 trillion during the two terms of the Bush presidency. It has now gone up nearly $8 trillion since President Obama took office.
The U.S. national debt continues to spiral out of control, without any plan to reign it in …
- Ukraine, Russia, Putin – ‘Poking The Bear’
A butterfly flaps its wings and your world changes …
The tragic shooting down of a Malaysia Airlines flight over Ukraine in July brought home the scale of the conflict in the region and how intractable and dangerous it would become.
The tragic deaths of 298 innocent civilians on the Malaysian passenger jet is partly due to the dangerous game of poker currently continuing between major powers and the lack of will or complete failure to broker a meaningful ceasefire and peace negotiations.
Real people have had their lives destroyed. Many of those 298 people woke up in the comfortable homes with their families and started preparing for departure. They were excited about the prospect that they would be enjoying the beauty of a far distant land and gain a reprieve from their daily routines.
The conflict in Ukraine was probably known to them due to it being headline news for months now. It may have been a concern, but not a serious one. They probably hoped for the best and hoped that international governments would find a resolution.
In a way, they may have felt it was remote to them, not immediate, a different place with people who spoke different languages, had a different history.
In a flash that illusion was gone and their lives and the lives of the participants in the conflict became forever linked.
This is the nature of risk. Risk is born of change and it is driven by a multitude of possible variables. All of which are in a state of constant flux. We all manage risks in our daily lives. Our political leaders are meant to manage risks in our respective countries and their leaders are meant to manage risk in our respective economic blocks.
In order to manage risk we must be aware of the variables that affect us. We must know how they work, how they can be managed and how they can be diminished or leveraged?
You do this when you lock your house and set the alarm. When you put your seatbelt on. When you ensure that your child wears a helmet while cycling their bike. When you buy health insurance. When you buy gold.
These are risks that you actively manage, there are other risks that you can do nothing about. These are so called acts of god, where no one is to blame, no one could have known.
The destruction of the passenger plane was not an act of god, it was an act of man.
An entire series of events had to happen, and in sequence, for this tragedy to have occurred. It is a failure of modern leadership and shows just how poor our political elites have become. It also shows how fragile our world is.
Financial Times, 30th June, 1914 via Financial Times
Warning signs like todays have been seen before. Local conflicts eventually boil over. Regional powers get sucked in. Powerful countries that would be better off in peaceful coexistence opt instead for conflict. Wrong choices are made.
The greatest wars in history all started with someone somewhere having an idea, taking liberties (nearly always literally taking people’s liberties and their lives), taking advantage of their neighbours, imposing their economic and military might on less powerful countries. It is when such actions go unchecked for too long and peaceful solutions are not genuinely sought that wars start.
Peaceful compromise is not sought leading to war. But “to jaw-jaw is always better than to war-war” as Sir Winston Churchill sagely put it.
Geopolitical risk is very high today and yet it is not appreciated by experts and the majority of the public . The same was true in 1914.
Very few thought that the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand would be a spark that ignited the brutal war that was World War I and the attendant economic depression. Indeed, as the Financial Times front page from the day after the assassination shows, stock markets were “scarcely affected by the assassination of the heir to the Austrian throne… there’s no evidence that stock holders took fright.”
Complacency reigned about the geopolitical risks. Six months later the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 35% lower and World War I was in its first year.
There is always a catalyst in the form of an event in history which people look back on as the start of tremendous global turmoil. Usually, there are significant pre-existing political, military and economic tensions which are the real factors leading to war.
The butterfly event can be the spark that ignites the conflagration.
The fog of war today could lead to an incident, such as the tragic airline crash yesterday or an act of terrorism, which could be the spark of a much greater conflict.
There have been many potential butterfly events in recent months, any one of which could lead to the hurricane of war.
The problem with war is that no matter how well the plans are made, strange things happen in war and there are many tragic unintended consequences.
Russia is not Syria, Libya or Iraq. Russia is a powerful, advanced military and nuclear state. Russia has good relations with one of the most powerful nations in the world today, China; and most countries in an increasingly multi polar world. History shows that poking the Russian bear can lead to negative consequences.
Political and financial complacency reigns today as it did in 1914 …
- Move To Stealth Bail-In Regime Continues
2014 was another year in which the architecture of the enveloping western bail-in regimes saw more building blocks stealthily put in place.
The EU put in place legislation that will allow depositors to have their cash confiscated in the event of banks becoming insolvent.
Just last month, credit rating agencies warned that Europe’s banks are vulnerable in 2015 due to weak macroeconomic conditions, unfinished regulatory hurdles and the risk of bail-ins.
Preparations have been or are being put in place by the international monetary and financial authorities, including the Bank of England for bail-ins.
It is now the case that in the event of bank failure, deposits of individuals and companies can be confiscated.
Let’s be crystal clear: The EU, UK, the U.S., Canada, Australia and New Zealand all have plans in place for bail-ins in the event of banks and other large financial institutions getting into difficulty.
The majority of the public are unaware of these developments, the risks and the ramifications.
Alas, little has been learnt in recent years and the era of bank bail outs is set to continue. However going forward instead of taxpayers bailing out insolvent banks, we will see savers bailing out banks in the ill thought through mechanism that is bail-ins.
Protecting Savings In The Coming Bail-In Era
