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Politicians
running for the US Presidency, and their surrogates, are fond of saying
"that this election is the most important of our lifetime." They
invoke this cliché so reflexively and so often that it no longer has
any meaning. The reason they say this election is so important is because
they want listeners to believe, for whatever reason, that it pits two deeply
contrasting visions for America against one another, with only one vision
capable of winning.
At their
core, US-elections are simply fought over the competing interests of just two
political parties, - the Democrats and Republicans that control the political
system, with a seemingly unbreakable monopoly. Each side wants to tinker with
regulations, spending, and taxes to influence the economy; and pay rewards to
their constituents. But the truth is, politicians of
both parties are corrupted by financial contributions to their election
campaigns. It leads to an unfair playing field, in which big Business gets
even bigger, through mergers and acquisitions, and overseas operations, and
leaves US-consumers at their mercy. Today, only half of US-households are
paying taxes, and the other half is receiving entitlements. The US-economy is
at the tipping point of collapse, similar to bankrupted states such as Greece
and Spain.
The Federal
Reserve has stepped into the breach, trying to bridge the divide between a
deeply polarized US-government that's paralyzed on fiscal policy and a
fragile US-economy, that's teetering on the brink of a "double-dip"
recession. In doing so, the Fed has essentially become the fourth branch of
the US-government, and its interfering with the natural workings of the
financial markets. Under the guise of the President's Working Group on the
Financial Markets, (aka the "Plunge Protection Team"), the Fed has
adopted the most intrusive and interventionist stance in the US-capital
markets in its history. Over the course of the past 3-½-years, the Fed
has ruled over the US-capital markets with an iron fist, and is erasing the
mantra of "Free Markets for Free Men." Sadly, the US's long-held
tradition of "laissez-faire" (leave it alone) has been dumped into
the trash bin of history.
Today,
traders must operate under new rules of engagement, and the first question of
the day is, what intervention tactics does the Fed have up its sleeve, and
when is it planning to unveil its next move? "Quantitative Easing,"
"Operation Twist," and the "Zero Interest Rate Policy"
(ZIRP), has become the "New Normal" on Wall Street. Furthermore,
the invisible hand of the Fed is controlling the behavior of the capital
markets and at the same time, increasing the US-government's control over the
US-economy.
With the
polls showing a dead even race, the Republican challenger Mitt Romney, in
unusually blunt terms, has warned the Fed to stay politically neutral ahead
of the Nov 6th election, and avoid any radical actions that could influence
its outcome. "I don't think QE-2 was terribly effective. I think a QE-3
and other Fed stimulus is not going to help this economy," Romney told
Fox News on August 23rd. "I think that is the wrong way to go. I think
it also seeds the kind of potential for inflation down the road that would be
harmful to the value of the dollar and harmful to the stability of our
nation's needs," Romney said. The Global Money Trends newsletter holds
the opinion, that the Fed would pay heed to Romney's public warning, and seek
delay the launching of QE-3 until after Nov 6th.
At the
upcoming Nov 6th election, there's a last chance opportunity for US-voters to
reverse the tide towards greater government control over the financial
markets. Instead, voters can overthrow the Fed's ruthless dictatorship and
restore the tradition of "Free Markets for Free Men and Women." The
Republican ticket of Mitt Romney & Paul Ryan ticket, has publicly
declared its support for a House bill, championed by Texas Congressman, Ron
Paul that would authorize a forensic audit of the Fed's balance sheet, and
reveal its clandestine intervention tactics. For the first time, traders
could learn about what's goes on behind closed doors at the secretive Fed.
"Doing an accounting of the Federal Reserve, finding out where the
money's coming and where it's going is not a bad thing for our country,"
said Reince Priebus, GOP
chief, on August 26th. If true, traders could celebrate the return of free
markets.
On August
23rd, in very blunt terms, Romney indicated that the first step towards
restoring the rules of free markets would include some house cleaning at the
Fed. Romney said he would fire Fed chief Bernanke. "I would want to
select someone new and someone who shared my economic views" to the top
spot at the US-central bank. "I want someone to provide monetary
stability that leads to a strong dollar and confidence that America is not
going to go down the road that other nations have gone down, to their
peril," Romney added. His sidekick, Paul Ryan doubled down on the idea
of dumping Bernanke, and his radical QE policies, summarizing his viewpoint
in just two words: "Sound Money." "We want to pursue a
sound-money strategy so that we can get back the King Dollar," Ryan
said.
Nowadays, the
Fed has been stacked with hard core, addicted money printers, whose first
knee jerk reaction to any sign of a rough patch in the economy, or a -5%
pullback in the stock market, is to issue threats to the media, that another
round of nuclear QE could soon be on its way. While the Republicans want to
strip the Fed of its dual mandate, and simply have it focus on fighting
inflation, the Bernanke Fed and the Obama White House have quietly adopted a
third mandate- - to artificially inflate the value of the stock market,
through the power of the printing press, and the rigging of long-term bond
yields.
Overhauling
the Fed, For advocates of free markets, and less government intervention -
auditing the Fed's activities would be a huge step in the right direction.
Sacking Fed chief Ben Bernanke and installing a new Fed chief that pursues a
sound US-dollar policy, would have a profound impact on the outlook for the
US-capital markets, and by extension, would ripple across the world markets,
including commodities and precious metals. Last week, Mr
Ryan spoke with CNBC's Larry Kudlow, and said he
wants to eliminate crony capitalism and corporate welfare in the tax code.
Auditing the Fed would break-up the nexus of crony capitalism that exists
between the Fed and its partners, - the Wall Street Oligarchs.
A Romney -
Ryan victory on Nov 6th is expected to trigger an audit of the Fed's
clandestine activities. It would also bring a halt to the Fed's secretive
intervention forays in the stock index futures markets that are designed to
prevent natural market corrections from morphing into grizzly Bear market
slides. It's called the "Bernanke Put," and risk takers in the
stock market rely on the Fed's timely purchases of stock index futures, that
provide a safety net for speculators, when risky bets go sour, due to unexpected
negative news.
However, the
Fed's worst fears would only materialize, if the Romney - Ryan ticket
prevails on Nov 6th. On August 27th - a poll published by Gallup showed
Romney holding a slim 1-point lead, but Obama's approval rating sinking to a
dangerously low 43%. Yet the online bettors at Intrade.com have a different
view, and give Obama a 56% chance of winning re-election, with Romney's odds
at winning at 44%. Still, since Romney picked Ryan as his VP on June 11th,
Obama's lead over Romney has almost shrunk in half, from +22-points to
+12-points today.
An August
27th USA Today/Gallup poll of about 1,000 adults found that 58% expect Obama
to be re-elected while just 36% think he will lose to Romney. The new poll
also showed that 86% of Obama's supporters expect him to win compared to 9%
who expect him to lose, while just 65% of Romney's supporters think he will
win and 28% think he will lose. Pollsters say voter expectations are often
skewed toward incumbents because they typically win reelection. Still, Romney
has better odds of winning in the gambling parlors, since the same polls show
that 2/3's of voters say the US-economy is heading in the wrong direction,
and that a clear majority of independents, say Romney is more capable to fix
the economy. Yet polling data should be measured against a grain of salt,
since it's often used by media outlets that seek to form public opinion
rather than to properly gauge it.
Over the past
14-months, Obama's odds at winning re-election have mostly mirrored the
direction of the Dow Jones Industrials. Since the pick of Ryan, Obama's odds
at winning have dropped -4-points to 56%, even though the Dow Industrials
have held steady above the 13,000-level. That reveals a small sea change in
bettors' psychology. However, the US-stock market was a ghost town this
summer, with trading volumes eerily shrinking to an average of just
5.5-billion shares per day, or -48% less than a year ago. In thinly traded
markets, it's easier for the Fed to artificially prop-up the stock markets'
value.
There's a
very wide disconnect between the euphoria on Wall Street, and its buoyant
stock markets, and the general public's dire outlook of a stagnant
US-economy. According to pollsters, two thirds of Americans think the US-economy
is still stuck in the Great Recession, and is headed in the wrong direction.
Only 31% say it is moving in the right direction - the lowest number since
December 2011. The dire outlook is explained by a recent analysis by the US
Census Bureau and Sentier Research LLC, indicating
that US-household incomes actually declined more in the 3-year expansion that
started in June 2009 than during the longest recession since the Great
Depression.
Median
US-household income fell -4.8% on an inflation- adjusted basis since the
recession officially ended in June 2009. That's more than the -2.6% drop
during the 18-month "Great Recession." After the dust has settled,
US-household income is still -7.2% below the December 2007 level.
"Almost every group is worse off than it was three years ago, and some
groups had very large declines in income," the Census Bureau's income
and poverty statistics program, said. "We're in an unprecedented period
of economic stagnation."
Although,
Americans are increasingly pessimistic about the future, many voters don't
seem to be holding it against Democrat Obama. Instead, the embattled
president is getting some slack because he inherited a very tough situation.
In fact, Obama's strongest base supporters are among also suffering the highest
jobless rates and highest poverty rates in the country. Yet they conventional
continue to buck conventional logic. Beyond Obama's core of political
support, many independents are under the spell of the Fed's bag of magic
tricks.
Over the past
14-months, the Fed has fueled the third leg of a liquidity driven rally on
Wall Street, that's catapulted the Dow Jones Industrials to a 4-year high,
above the 13,000-level. The Fed has kept the stock market buoyant, by
increasing the MZM money supply to a record high of $11.1-trillion today. The
S&P-500 blue-chips continue to defy the law of gravity, largely due to
the Fed's radical money policies, even though growth in US-company earnings
began to sputter out in the second quarter, falling -5% compared with a year
ago.
Historically,
gyrations in the stock market have been a key driver influencing US-consumer
confidence. However, since February, US-consumer confidence has been eroding,
even though the Dow Industrials have stayed buoyant. Earlier this week, a
survey of consumer confidence, taken by the Conference Board showed a drop to
a reading of 60.6 in August, down sharply from 65.4 in July. The 4.8-point
slide was the biggest monthly decline since October. Some 52% of Americans
say jobs are not plentiful. Most ominously, expectations for the health of
the US-economy over the next six months plunged to a reading of 70.5, from
78.4 in July. Rising gasoline and food prices, a U-6 jobless rate that's
hovering at 15%, combined with limited wage gains are keeping consumers glum.
A further
pullback in household spending and could tip the fragile US-economy into a
"double dip" recession in the months ahead. Still, the Fed's
radical monetary schemes are keeping the stock market afloat, in thinly
traded conditions. Traders are so addicted to the hallucinogenic QE-drug that
they downplay the sharp downturns in Asian and European economies that are likely
to weaken S&P-500 earnings by about -1.5% compared with a year ago, - the
first quarterly decline in 3-½ years. Tellingly, psyched-out traders
are scared to death of being out of the stock market should the Fed announce
the launching of QE-3. Nowadays, stock prices jump higher when negative news
on the US-economy hits the wire, because traders reckon that bad news boosts
the chances of more Fed intervention.
QE fuels
Commodity Inflation, The launching QE-3 could
backfire on the Fed and its political masters, if it ignites further big
price increases in the grains and energy sectors. Ninety percent of Americans
own very little or no shares of stocks at all, and wouldn't benefit from
QE-3, but would get stuck paying for the negative side-effects - sharply
higher costs for the basic staples of life, - energy and food prices. That's
especially true for lower income wage earners in China, India, and many
Middle Eastern nations, that spend more than half of their income on food and
energy. Devastating droughts in the United States and Russia are already set
to drive global stocks of corn and wheat to multi-year lows. Launching QE-3
could ignite a global food price crisis on a scale last seen in 2008.
Corn prices
have jumped above $8 /bushel, and soybeans above $17 /bushel, amid the third
hottest and driest summer in the seven major producing US-states since 1895.
Only 22% of the US-corn crop and 30% of the soybean crop is rated good to
excellent, - the worst since 1988. That's catapulted the iPath
Dow Jones Grains index (ticker symbol JJG.N), which includes the three top
US-grains, +50% higher since June 4th. Sharply higher grain prices also
increases the cost of raising livestock and poultry, and distilling ethanol.
At the same
time, gasoline prices have surged 60-cents /gallon higher, from above their
June 22nd lows, fueled by threats of war in the Persian Gulf and more
importantly, central banks threatening to unleash new rounds of nuclear QE.
Nationally, the average US-gasoline price has risen to $3.78 per gallon, the
costliest year ever at the pump in the month of August, with little relief
through Labor Day. Still, the radical extremists at the Fed want to pour even
more fuel on the flames of inflation. On August 27th, Chicago Fed chief
Charles Evans urged the Fed to begin buying unlimited amounts of Treasury
bonds, until the US-jobless rate declines for at least six months. Evans
believes that printing vast quantities of money can create jobs, and gives
little thought to the deleterious impact of squeezing consumer's disposable
income.
However,
Obama's approval rating could take a serious hit, if the national average
price of gasoline approaches $4 /gallon, as a result of QE-3. Recognizing
this threat, the Obama administration has already sent signals to the
marketplace, that's it's preparing to release crude oil from the US's
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in the month of September, in order to put
a lid on the price of gasoline between now and Election Day.
Bank of
England Plays the QE Card, - In England, the
"free trade" mantra and "non-interference" slogan were
first coined during the 17th century. The French phrase "laissez
faire" started to gain popularity in English-speaking countries in the
late 18th century. In Britain, in 1843, the newspaper The Economist was
founded and became an influential voice for laissez-faire capitalism.
However, since March of 2009, the Bank of England (BoE) has been trampling on
the tradition of laissez faire, and instead, is following the same blueprints
that's utilized by the Fed, and the Bank of Japan, - the original pioneer of
QE.
The British
economy has been in recession for much of the past four years. Like much of
the world, it suffered a deep 18-month contraction during the financial
crisis. That ended in Q'4 of 2009. Since then, Britain's GDP has fallen in
five of the last seven quarters. B etween April and
June of this year, - the UK-economy shrank -0.5%, and follows a -0.3%
contraction in the first quarter and -0.4% in Q'4 of 2011, - meaning it's
contracted for nine straight months. Output is still -4.5% below its
pre-crisis peak in the first quarter of 2008, and -0.9% below its level in
Q'3 of 2010, when the Conservative coalition government began its fiscal
austerity plan.
However, even
though the UK-economy is suffering through a mild recession, the UK's
Footisie-250 Index, including smaller companies that earn their revenue in
the local economy, wasn't negatively impacted by the economic downturn. Instead,
the FTSE-250 index divorced itself from the traditional script of
Macro-Economic thinking, and climbed +10% higher since the start of Q'4 of
2011. London traders have put their faith in BoE chief Mervyn
King, who publicly says the central bank will do whatever it takes to pull
the UK-economy out of recession, signaling further purchases of Gilts, using
freshly printed British pounds.
On July 5th,
the BoE launched its seventh installment of QE that will inject a further
£50-billion into the London money markets, thus adding to the
£325-billion already swirling in the marketplace. If nothing else, QE-7
is designed to artificially boost the value of the local stock market and
keep government borrowing costs near historic lows, through a scheme known as
"financial repression." "It's fair to say that we haven't done
enough," King said on August 6th, referring to QE. "I don't accept
the argument that asset purchases are having a diminishing effect." King
underscored his determination to boost the UK-economy, saying the central
bank "will continue to do all it can to bring about a recovery."
On August
26th, the BoE admitted that the biggest winners under its QE-schemes are the
top-5% of the richest Britons that own 40% of the UK's financial assets, -
while it failed to prevent a "double-dip" recession for the general
public. Pumping £375-billion into the London money markets since March
2009 has delivered an estimated windfall profit of £870-billion to the
wealthiest 10% of British households, while the poorest 10% of households
gained only £3.5-billion. Thus, the wealthiest 10% of British
households gained an average of £350,000 each from QE, while the
poorest gained an average of £1,400, or 240-times less.
The Bank of
England is engaging in financial repression, by keeping short-term interest
rates locked near 0.50%, and driving 10-year Gilt yields towards 1.50%, a
historic low . Locking these interest rates below
the official rate of inflation hasn't energized the UK-economy, because
wealthier UK-households have lower propensity to spend their capital gains.
Still, on August 28th, Adam Posen, a member of the BoE, called for the
Trans-Atlantic central banks, - the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB), and
BoE to up the ante even higher, by launching another coordinated round of QE
in the weeks ahead. "It could be very effective and the Fed should act
as if there was no election. If the world is in slowdown, they should be trying
to stimulate demand at home," Posen said.
On August
28th, Senator Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) blasted Fed chief Ben Bernanke, in a
Financial Times op-ed, and sending a message that the Republicans want to the
Fed to stay on the sidelines, during the upcoming election campaign. "We
must demand a Fed that serves as a utility institution in our economy, and
not an enabler of some perverse financial system addiction. It would be
helpful to have a Fed chairman who acted with a greater sense of humility
about what monetary policy can achieve. Mr. Bernanke's comfort with managing
long-term interest rates and his unwillingness to stand up and say that there
are limits to what monetary policy can accomplish is disturbing, to say the
least. The Fed's asset purchase programs have empowered runaway spending by
the federal government, hurt savers and forced investors to hunt for yield in
asset classes to which they are not suited," Corker writes. It's a stern
message that the Fed chief isn't expected to ignore, especially if the polls
are tight, and show that Romney - Ryan have a chance to win the keys to the
White House.
Unfortunately,
the Americans and the Brits have strayed far from their free market
principles. C entral banking has turned into
central planning, from smoothing the business cycle to micro-managing the
daily gyrations in the stock markets, to financial engineering the level of
interest rates. Nowadays, the Fed is most concerned about the next 100-point
move in the Dow Industrials. Price discovery in the stock market is no longer
a function of the opinions of millions of individual investors, but rather is
dictated by the central bank.
On November
6th, the fate of the Bernanke Fed and its radical QE-scheme is on the
chopping block, and the scope of government control over the US-financial
markets is on the ballot.
Gary Dorsch
Editor, Global Money Trends
www.sirchartsalot.com
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