Here in the brief period between the winter holidays and New Year’s Eve,
as a writer, I'm obligated to pen a few pleasant, cheerful reflections.
But I have to confess, I’m just not feeling it this year.
Peering into the future, I'm not seeing much that's pleasant or cheerful.
So here's the best I can do: I hope everything works out well for you
in 2019.
OK, with the cheer now dispensed, we can bring our attention to the true
state of the world, which is deteriorating and getting worse.
Environmentally, the only ecosphere we’ve got is being killed by our abuse
and gross neglect. Economically, the greatest credit bubble in all of human
history is popping as we watch.
As I've often repeated, I truly wish this weren’t the case. I don't
have a “bummer gene” that relishes bad news nor do I enjoy being "that
guy” who says what no one wants to hear.
Many of you reading this know exactly what I'm talking about. You,
too, had to keep your lips zipped over the holidays lest the strained family
small talk and opening of cheaply-made forgettable gifts be ruined by any
talk of 'reality'. Sure, everyone can inwardly wince at Uncle Jack’s
six bourbon and tolerate the buffoonery and social awkwardness sure to
follow because “it’s only once a year.”
But collapsing insect populations, species loss, shrinking aquifers, and
the utter betrayal of the younger generations by the “olders” running the
fiscal and monetary policies of the world are not as easily dismissed.
There’s no relief at the end of the day when the problem will head off
home.
Instead, these many predicaments lurk and fester, as stubbornly as a
rotted beam in the basement. A mature adult in this situation
would get out his tools (or call a carpenter) and deal with it. But the
immature person pretends the problem doesn’t exist, and then scolds and
shames anyone who brings it up.
Well, for those of us in the mature realty-based camp, we can point out
not one but many dozens of rotten beams in the basement, and the walls, and
the roof. So, holidays are quite often more a burden to us than a
comfort. “Why, yes, Aunt Karen, that is a nice set of coasters you
gave to John” as you think to yourself “I wonder if those are made
from pressed microplastics or virgin rainforest?”
To be completely clear, I deplore the decisions that got us to this point
in history. But here we are.
I wish the Federal Reserve, the ECB and the rest of the world's major
central banks had not printed up $16 trillion of thin-air money and caused
the greatest collection of asset price bubbles in all of history. I wish that
the US had heeded Jimmy Carter back in the 1970s and developed a workable
long-term energy strategy that made sense. I wish that disappearing
insect population were not relegated to the back pages of major newspapers,
and instead were front and center each and every day until responsible
actions were undertaken. I wish that savers, pensioners and the young
hadn't been sacrificed upon the altar of bank profits so that the obscenely
wealthy could become even more so.
But, that’s not how things turned out. So now we’ve each just got to make
the best of it individually, whatever may come.
Two Questions
Back in November of 2018, I participated in a superb evening event put on
by modern Poet-Historian Stephen Jenkinson where he posed the following to
the audience, which mostly consisted of people with grey hair. He said
that every older person needs to be ready for the day when a younger person
walks up to them and asks them two questions:
- When did you know, and
- What did you do about it?
When did you know about the many problems and predicaments facing our
world today? When did you find out about species loss, and peak oil, the
generationally destructive policies of your peers, and the unsustainability
of our entire economic model?
And what did you do about any of it? Did you make any changes at all
to your behavior? Or did you close your eyes and slip into a strategy of false
hope? Hope that ‘somebody’ would do 'something'? Did you contribute
anything to help fight these challenges?
These aren't easy questions to face, because they cut right to the heart
of the matter. They put our integrity into question and threaten to expose
whether we have any at all.
Not easy stuff, to be sure.
So, by way of preparation for what's coming, let me act as a stand-in for
that future young person and be the one to ask you:
When did you know?
And what did you do about it?
Psychological Projection
Psychological projection is a defense mechanism in which the human ego
defends itself against unconscious impulses or qualities (both positive and
negative) by denying their existence in themselves while attributing them to
others.
(Source)
In the US, the older generation, the Baby Boomers, have a lot to answer
for. I'm among them, so I'm pointing my accusing fingers right back at
myself, too. It's incumbent on every group to be its own best critic (a
credo the FBI, many police departments, large corporations, and political
parties seem to be woefully ignorant of).
Instead of being appropriately self-critical, 2018 was the year the entire
mainstream establishment decided to engage in a mass act of psychological
projection instead. With Millennials as the hapless targets.
In the US, after spending $trillions on unnecessary wars and neglecting to
invest for the future (adequately funding pensions, maintaining vital
infrastructure, etc), the establishment decided 2018 would be a good year to
wag its collective finger at the Millennial generation, going so far as to
blame its low home ownership rate on eating too much avocado toast:
But it didn’t stop there. The establishment went on an absolute tear of a
blaming spree. It accused Millennials of so many vices that long lists had to
be created. As those lists became exhaustively long, Millennials were branded
“mass murderers”:
The reason that so many Millennials are turning away from the
blindly-consumptive patterns of their parents is because they got locked out
of that game long enough to peer back in. As they did, many decided that
their parents' material pursuits and life choices aren't worth repeating.
A lifetime of paying off mortgage and other debts to bankers or…spending
their money instead on valued experiences while still young and
vigorous? Hmmmm. Not exactly a tough choice, is it?
The Boomers and their journalistic lackeys decry Millennials' opting-out
as “killing” valued institutions like for-profit colleges and the housing
market, but the reality is if you give people a bit of breathing room to
assess their options, few will willingly choose a lifetime of debt servitude.
Most prefer financial freedom and a life well-lived.
I know that my own children (all young adults now) have opted not go into
debt. Or overspend on college. Or purchase cars until absolutely forced to
(and even then they bought beaters).
I like to think that they got some of that frugality from me but,
truthfully, after about the age of 13 parents’ influence on their children
hovers between 0 and -3. From the age of 13 on their peers shape their
outlook. And many of my children’s’ peers are making similar purchasing and
life decisions.
For the journalists making a show out of struggling to understand why the
Millennials are making different choices than the Boomer did, I offer up this
quote:
"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his
salary depends upon his not understanding it!"
~ Upton
Sinclair
It’s important to note that the mainstream press has a couple of important
jobs: keeping everyone firmly seated in the consumer mind-rut, and deflecting
any criticism away from the wealthy and their corporate masters (should any
distinction between those groups exist).
If I sound harsh on the mainstream press, that’s because far too many in
that profession have settled into being little more than mouthpieces for the
powerful; doing little more than repeating scripted talking points,
inaccurate “facts,” and overt corporate and political propaganda.
In other words: the criticism entirely deserved. Especially when one asks,
“When did you know? And what did you do about it?”
2019: The Beginning Of The End
2018 has been the year that things began to unravel, as the accumulated
mistakes of the prior decades finally settled in.
2019 will see the repercussions of that unraveling. It's going to be a
very hard year as reality starts to settle in.
As far as the financial markets go, which are the preferred
self-enrichment and public signaling devices of the powers that be, our
operating model is contained in the phrase: Until and unless.
Until and unless the world’s central banks reverse course and once again
undertake more Quantitative Easing, or “QE,” financial asset prices will
continue to fall throughout 2019. Stocks, bonds, real estate. You
name it.
For all the investors out there now habituated to ever-rising asset
prices, this will be a very unpleasant and painful period.
But beyond just our portfolios, the imbalances facing us are extraordinary
and they're spread all across the world’s stage -- economically, politically,
ecologically, demographically -- and there simply are not sufficient
resources to ever again return to the reliable and fast pace of economic
growth experienced in the 20th century.
It’s time for each of us to focus on preparing financially, emotionally,
and physically. Things are changing, quickly, and pretending that they
aren't isn’t a winning strategy.
Few are ready to hear these messages. More will be ready over the
coming year, but still the numbers will be surprisingly small.
This makes it even more important that we stick together and offer each
other support and encouragement as we navigate increasingly difficult waters
over the coming months and years.
For those who'd benefit from specific guidance and support in developing a
personal preparation plan, be sure to consider joining Peak Prosperity's
annual seminar in April. (more details here)
Look, I wish I could join the untold millions in looking past all of these
predicaments and cheerily wish everyone a Happy New Year and leave it at
that. But I cannot. We don't pick the times in which we live, But
we can control how we respond, as well as how we decide to meet the
challenges we face.
In Part 2 - 2019: The Beginning Of The End, we detail out
how the current central bank fueled credit-cycle is breaking down and how
that will start creating cascading failures across the systems our society
depends on. We also lay out 5 key steps for securing foundational resilience
against what lies ahead.
Remember: we can't control what happens to us, but we can control our
degree of vulnerability to it. And the best way to address crisis is to put
sufficient preparations in place before it arrives.
Click here to read Part 2 of this report (free
executive summary, enrollment required for full access).
