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Cours Or & Argent

Silver: the next Apple?

IMG Auteur
 
Publié le 06 janvier 2012
345 mots - Temps de lecture : 0 - 1 minutes
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SUIVRE : Europe James Turk
Rubrique : Fil D'Or

 

 

 

 

More downbeat economic news from Europe yesterday sent the euro down to $1.2790. As The Wall Street Journal points out, this is the single currency’s lowest level against the US dollar since September 2010, following the initial turmoil in European sovereign debt during the spring and summer of 2010. Sentiment remains uniformly bearish on the euro, which is often a decent contrarian indicator. In the words of hedge fund manager Gravelle Pierre (quoted in the Journal): "A lot of people are short euros," he says. "As much as I think the euro is going down to $1.20, everyone else is thinking the same thing and that scares me."

In a break from recent market patterns, euro weakness coincided with gains in US equities. The latter moved higher on news that America added 325,000 private sector jobs in December – considerably more than the 125,000-230,000 analysts had been expecting. One should be wary of such numbers, however, as they tell us nothing about the quality of the jobs gained on net.

13.30GMT sees the release of US nonfarm payroll and unemployment figures for December. Consensus estimates for payrolls are for 150,000 gains, with the consensus for unemployment at 8.7%. If the trend for above average gains in American economic statistics continues, however, we are likely to see the numbers come in better than expected. This column’s prediction? Job gains north of 175,000 and an unemployment rate of below 8.7%.

But while these stats my be getting better, the US Treasury’s balance sheet gets ever-redder: as ZeroHedge reports, Uncle Sam is now just $25 million away from hitting his debt ceiling. Yet another reminder – as if it were needed – of one of the major problems affecting the US economy.

James Turk has also done a new interview with King World News, that talks about “silver as the next Apple” – Apple, as in the computer company Apple, whose stock has increased 70-fold over the last decade. Check out this article to see James’s argument in full, as well as his long-term price target for silver.

 

 

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Well what does one say about this $400 an ounce silver prognostication of James Turk?

1) I like the silver story. Probably too much! Why? Because I only sold half of my holding at the $50 mark. Had I sold the lot I would have been able to buy twice as much recently. I am not unhappy about this, and the reason is that the price is still going down in the short term. Sure it may breakout to the upside of his Descending Flag Pattern but we do not know that yet, in fact it may still go lower and a lot lower. **** you can draw lines anywhere on a chart to suit.

2) the PTB are looking bullish with their reduction of their short position. Does not stop them selling more of what they don't have!

3)Even though Apple Co and Silver have a similar chart pattern this is purely coincidental and a meaningless comparison other than to demo why you should hold thru thick and thin ( supposedly). I suggest a lot of people have gone bankrupt doing just that.

4) $400. Why? Is it that precious? Not likely. Is there a shortage...maybe but there is still a lot in the ground. I reckon half the people in India wear a kilo of it everyday plus there's all the silverware in cupboards all over the world.

5) Maybe someone will try to corner the market a la Hunt. Fat lot of good it did him.

6) Turk should know better than to make baseless claims like this. Silver will go into permanent backwardation well before the price gets to $400 an ounce. There will be fireworks and a lot of misery and you will be lucky to buy a loaf of bread for $400 if that happens.

PS I will buy more silver when I see it going up again. That could be soon and in line with Turk's analysis. I don't know. But I know this... Patience is a virtue.





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Well what does one say about this $400 an ounce silver prognostication of James Turk? 1) I like the silver story. Probably too much! Why? Because I only sold half of my holding at the $50 mark. Had I sold the lot I would have been able to buy twice as  Lire la suite
S W. - 08/01/2012 à 05:34 GMT
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