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The Federal Reserve recently announced important policy
changes after its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Here are the
three most important takeaways, in its own words:
- The Committee decided today to keep the target
range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently
anticipates that economic conditions – including low rates of
resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium
run – are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the
federal funds rate at least through late 2014.
- The Committee judges that inflation at the rate of
2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for
personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer
run with the Federal Reserve's statutory mandate. In the most recent
projections, FOMC participants' estimates of the longer-run normal rate
of unemployment had a central tendency of 5.2 percent to 6.0 percent.
- The Fed released FOMC participants' target federal
funds rate for the next few years.
Immediate Reactions
The first item is the most important as it was not
expected – and it had an immediate effect on markets. As seen in the
chart below, gold spiked higher on the surprise news of extending the
zero-rate policy through 2014.
The news prompted a similar jump in silver services:
Keeping rates low requires the Fed to print new money
to buy Treasuries, so the dollar weakened against the euro, although the
reaction wasn't as big as in those in the gold and silver markets. This is
partially due to the fact that the ECB is on its own campaign of printing
money.
The promise to keep short-term rates low for a longer
period also caused longer-term rates to fall slightly, as seen in the 10-year
Treasury rate chart below, which fell from about 2.05% to 1.95 %, a
relatively modest decline.
What Does This Say about the Fed's Policy?
The most important action of the three was to extend
the zero Fed funds rate to the end of 2014. This is a form of easing that could
affect more rates than just short-term rates. Furthermore, there is a debate
as to whether the action was the result of the Fed's concern about the
economy slipping back into recession. Or, this could also be a bullish sign
for the economy and stock market, as the guaranteed low rates could increase
investment to improve our economy. Zero rates drive investors to take on
risks – such as buying stocks – to gain higher returns. As a
result, this induces more investment toward riskier parts of the market, which
might otherwise be underfunded. Though the Fed aims to stimulate the economy,
we're more likely to see a slip back into recession rather than see an
effective Fed stimulus improving the economy.
The press conference suggested that quantitative easing
(QE) remains on the table. As a result, new targeted asset purchases by the
Fed are likely in our future. These additional purchases with newly printed
money could become inflationary. That is why gold shot higher and the dollar
weakened in the short term.
Both the Fed and the ECB have decidedly less-hawkish
members and leadership than just last year. Both have now moved toward more
money printing to keep rates low. The chart of central bank balance sheet as
a ratio to GDP shows that the central banks of the world are clearly
"printing":
 
Longer-Term Implications
The problem with printing money and promising to do so
for years ahead of time is that the negative consequences of inflation only
happen after a delay. As a result, it's difficult to know if a policy has
gone too far until years down the road at times. Unfortunately, if confidence
in the dollar is lost, the consequences cannot be easily reversed. One
problem for the Fed itself is that it holds long-term securities that will
lose value if rates rise. The federal government faces an even more serious
problem when interest rates rise, as higher rates on its debt mean greater
interest payments to service. Due to this federal-government debt burden, the
Fed has an incentive to keep rates low, even if the long-term result is
higher inflation. However, for now the Fed's statement suggests it sees
inflation as "subdued," so it's putting those concerns aside for
now.
Along with the promise of low rates, the Fed for the
first time gave an inflation target of 2%, as measured by Personal
Consumption Expenditures. The actual and target inflation show that the Fed
is currently not under major pressure from missing its target… not yet.
The Fed has not even tried to set a target for the
unemployment rate, which is only expected to edge below 8% by 2013. The Fed
says that that the longer-run unemployment range is
5% to 6%. The big difference from the current level of 8.5% indicates that
the Fed faces a greater challenge with unemployment than inflation now.
My conclusion from the Fed's actions is that it doesn't
care as much about its inflation target as it does about improving the
unemployment rate. Thus, it will err on the side of letting inflation rise, if
it would improve unemployment. But holding rates too low too long fueled the
housing bubble. Repeating the same game will have consequences of malinvestment in the form of new bubbles in the economy.
The Fed hopes to restore employment before the negative consequences of loose
monetary policy show up.
The Fed provided the accompanying chart of the Fed
funds rates expected by the seventeen members of the FOMC. Each dot indicates
the value (rounded to the nearest quarter-percent) of an individual participant's
judgment of the appropriate level of the target Federal funds rate at the end
of the specified calendar year. Over the long run, the Fed expects the funds
rate to rise to around 4.25%. Eleven of the members indicate that the rate
will rise before 2015. Only six expect the rate to stay close to zero through
2014.
The above chart should not be taken very seriously, as
Fed predictions have been notoriously inaccurate. Furthermore, it's likely
that rates will rise before 2014 as a result of market forces pushing them
upward due to mistrust of the currency – measured by rising gold and
commodity prices.
The Federal Reserve balance sheet expanded dramatically
as the credit crisis became acute in 2008. The Policy Tools (shown below in
black) grew by $2 trillion with the QE1 purchase of mortgage-backed
securities and the QE2 purchase of long-term Treasuries. This was an
unprecedented effort to support those markets, provide liquidity, and drive
rates down to zero. A simple extrapolation of similar expansion policies to
the end of 2014 suggests that the Fed may require an additional $2 trillion
to extend its goals. The problem is that such action would surely weaken the
dollar and drive gold much higher. If confidence is lost, rates could rise
even as the Fed continues to print and buy securities. The Fed says that it
will change its policy if conditions warrant. I think they will be forced to
stop this policy well before 2014 is over. Nonetheless, in the meantime, they
will plant the seeds of rising prices with ultralow rates.
The gold price is driven by Fed policies and its bias
toward printing money rather than defending the dollar's purchasing power.
This Fed bias was again reconfirmed by this announcement. With all the Fed's
renewed vigor toward keeping rates low longer, we can once again reconfirm
the ongoing downward slide for the dollar. As a result, gold remains the best
investment against the damaging government deficits and central bank policies
around the world.
[While the dollar may look good compared to the other
fiat contestants on the global money stage, the United States' debt situation
is untenable – and various factors could bring it to its knees faster
than anyone expects. Don't let it burn you: learn how to protect yourself and your assets.]
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