Setting the Stage for a September “Taper”

Uh-huh. Making investment decisions based upon polling?

There are 535 folks in Washington DC that can and will decide. Not the Wall Streeters, not the Fed, not a bunch of economic hacksters, the decision is always made by the omnipotent 535. What Washington giveth, Federal Reserve Act, Washington can taketh away. And poor deluded Eric Holder's belief of too big to prosecute becomes the meaningless chatter of a child saying, "Please sir, can I have some more?" The some more? A pair of biguns between his legs.

Our elected will "Throw Mama From the Train" to save themselves. To save their legacy and save their asses. They mean no evil. Some might be deluded to think we can borrow prosperity indefinitely. I would venture to suggest that at least half believe communitarianism can act as the glue to keep the soon to be penniless masses from eating one another.

But September based upon a poll? Gimme a break.
October is more probable depending on agricultural productivity deposited in the elevators. A good crop could result in a stay of execution. However a stay is only a delay.

There is one outside possibility. The scaling back is based solely on the purchasing of MBSs from the regional banks. Perhaps with a bit of careful new's releases, it could be engineered to convince the public that the Fed has absorbed all the quality MBSs and what little remains is garbage. Remember that "Throw Mama From the Train" scenario? Some banks are carrying garbage. Tis always good to have a designated fall-guy. A stay is only a delay, but it will at least get you another day. People love a good conspiracy, a well crafted crime so to say. Witness the crime shows on TV, the countless mystery/crime novels and yes, the conspiracy exposees. The art of the craft is in welding it all together as a diabolical conspiracy where even the most well-intentioned were duped. Just remember the maxim of fiction; it must make sense aka even the public; "where even the most well-intentioned (and well read) were (also easily) duped".

One of the advantages of retirement and knowing mortality is the willingness to be the bearer of bad news. Rather than weed the garden when it is at 34°C, you retire inside, read and ponder. The brave then comment in a public forum. The harsh reality is that the elders recognize what was a matter of necessity and voice it, while the younglings lack the wisdom that only the years can provide and loudly rebuke it.

Necessity is the reason for all decisions. The few see the long-term consequences, but most decide on short-term happy endings. Ergo, those polling results reflect the hopes and fears of those polled. We have come full-circle to investment decisions based upon the consensus of those who get paid every time we invest or pay for their management(?) expertise. Choose wisely Grasshopper.