Looking At Silver With A Longer Term Perspective

Recently in my analysis of the silver price I had been focussing on the shorter-term head and shoulders top pattern that had developed since this past September. Now that it has played out and we saw the anticipated breakdown in silver, I thought it important to show you the longer term chart using the 3 year. Note the formation of a much bigger head and shoulders top. Using this chart, if the neck line of $26.30 on the spot price is breached we could be in very big trouble. Even more so if the September crash low of $26.15 is wiped out, look out below to what could be a very rapid decline to sub $22.00 silver. As I tweeted today, and it pains me to say this, I took a lot of heat for advising readers to go short but the reality today is that if you bought silver at anytime in 2011, taking into account premiums, you have lost money IF you did not take advantage of higher prices to sell. Please be weary of the old trappings.. (It will come back, time to average down, etc etc) … if you have the stomach to hold on longer term then go ahead. If you need money to feed your family and pay your bills, stay away. The safe haven asset is not so safe at the moment is it? It took a me until the first recovery high of $44.20 to realize that silver looked broken and broken it is. I reiterate that my commentary in “the other side of the coin” holds true. Did we see the parabolic move in silver back in May that signalled the end of the bull? Take a look at the volume into the top and the decreasing volume during the slide.